By Chen (Irene) Xu, Class of 2027
On Friday 20 September 2024, Prof. Andrea Ghiselli of Fudan University gave a guest lecture on China-Middle East relations at DKU, hosted by the Center for the Study of Contemporary China’s (CSCC) China and the Global South Research Cluster.
Professor Ghiselli’s approach to this topic is based on thin constructivism and historical institutionalist concepts, and focuses on the Saudi, Syrian, and Chinese narratives produced by political (re-interpreted as autocratic leaders), bureaucratic (re-interpreted as the cadres and officials of the diplomatic corps), and communication (academic experts and journalists) elites between 2010 and 2023. Ghiselli and his co-author propose three scenarios: support for continuity in the relationship, support for deeper Chinese engagement, and mismatch about the future.
According to Ghiselli, to China, the Middle East is a region at a crossroads between past turbulence and potential future economic development. Chinese foreign policy makers’ narratives are that the Middle East is an important but not-critical region. The future of U.S.-China relations will probably decide that. According to these Chinese elites, change is needed but there is a preference for a policy adjustment rather than more radical changes.
On the Saudi side, regional instability is the product of failed economic development and the actions of subversive forces (from the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Qaeda to Iran, Turkey, and Qatar). Saudi Arabia has become less reliant on American politics and strategic support in recent years. And China is seen as a sovereignty-focused and pragmatic “force of economic and regional stability” for them, but they have no real desire for a post-American Middle East.
Looking at the Syrian narrative, the Middle East is at the center of a struggle for the emergence of a multipolar international system (e.g. Russian intervention in 2015). Syria is the “beating heart of Arabism” and a key member of the “axis of resistance”. Despite their differences in terms of national power, Syria and China (and Russia) are equal partners that share the same goals of resisting the United States and fighting terrorism. And there are no precise expectations regarding Chinese actions but a regional/global multipolar system will eventually materialize.
Professor Ghiselli concludes that China wants change but has adopted a wait-and-see approach because it is unsure about what to do. Saudi Arabia wants change and has a strategy to make that happen. It sees China is a critical factor and has the means to engage Beijing. Syria also has adopted a wait-and-see approach because of the means to make change happen, and pushes China to do so. He points out that continuity might be the most likely future of Sino-Middle-Eastern relations. However, three factors might change this situation: A major shift in Sino-American relations, a major shift in the Chinese economy, and a major shift in the regional landscape.
Professor Ghiselli’s forthcoming book In the Eye of the Beholder: Narratives of Sino-Middle Eastern Futures co-authored with Dr Mohammed Alsudairi (Australian National University), will be published by Cambridge University Press in 2025.
